The Polls Exposed by Someone Who Knows

Wow - what a great read the following post is! Who would know better than someone who has been there? This post explains so much of the candidates' behavior over the past few weeks, especially McCain's time in PA. Oh, and please pay special attention to what Sean says about the "undecideds". I believe yours truly suggested only yesterday that the media assertion that all of the undecideds going for Obama was fairly unreliable (read: ludicrous).

One other quick word: beware of the exit polls. They depend on a few things. Exit pollers have to take a statistically random sample, which is *really* hard. Some people are just naturally more gregarious, and in this election, don't you just think that the Obamaniacs are the ones who are going to be bursting at the seams to gush to anyone who will listen -- especially exit pollers? Some people are more reticent to disclose for whom they voted. As I said, it's really hard to get a statistically random sample because of the selection effects. Also, in this election, probably more than in others, the political stripes of the exit pollers could come into play, no matter how hard the trainers have worked to caution against it. My point is simply this: don't lose heart. Read what Sean Maelstrom has to say about the polls, and realize that McCain only has to win states by 1 or 2 percentage points. He doesn't require a landslide. Hopefully, stronger minds will prevail. Thanks to the friend who passed this post along to me:

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/toast/